A less-rambling yet simplistic analysis of Election ‘08.

So here’s what’s been running through my head today as opposed to yesterday. I woke up today feeling much better, more optimistic, more upbeat. 538 has projected Ohio as solidly in hand for Obama, Virginia a likely win for the Big O, and even Florida solidly in play and more likely Obama’s than McCain’s. RealClear wasn’t so bold as to give a final projection, though if you make them (Electoral Counts w/o Toss Ups) they have the big swing states going blue.

Colorado’s status as a swing state hinges on Obama’s numbers being lower than expected. 9 votes isn’t much but it can go a hell of a long way, especially in the unlikely event that the numbers are terribly off and we’re closer to a tie (EC-wise) than expected. McCain was in Colorado trying to pull it a little closer. He needs those 9 votes more than Obama probably does, but the further Obama pulls ahead, the better.

Talk of an Obama landslide seem plausible but unlikely. I don’t really see Florida making a difference, but I also can’t really see it sliding toward Obama, either. The polls are pretty close and Obama’s efforts in the state, though tremendous, have only been able to pull it more-or-less even, unlike his efforts in Colorado that have driven us significantly into the blue.

My best friend James Campbell is a Republican political science major, and we spend a lot of our time talking politics. He’s not in any way optimistic about a McCain win (he doesn’t really like McCain anyway–he told me he “voted against Obama, not for McCain”) but we’ve talked about a lot of the ways McCain could pull it off. As 538 has reported, if Obama takes Virginia, he’s pretty much got it in the bag. Virginia and Ohio together and then we’re just talking about how badly Obama stomps McCain.

Even still, I can’t stop mix-matching on RealClear and looking at what McCain wou;ld have to do to win/tie. Assuming the poll projections are right and states vote as they historically have, McCain would have to take Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Missouri, Colorado, and Montana to even tie. Georgia, North Carolina, and Missouri are probably going to be red, but Florida, Virginia, and Ohio are big question marks. Obama wins any of these and the Oval Office is his.

Florida’s polls close earlier than any of these, but we all know that Florida and voting results tend to take longer than Jupiter takes to revolve around the sun. I also tend to think Florida is going to McCain, so we’ll all have to wait at least another hour or two to get numbers in that guarantee a Obama victory. If numbers in Virginia are tending to the red we might have a little cause to sweat, and if Ohio is underwhelming then we’re really going to be shaking a bit.

This is where Colorado comes in. If, God forbid, McCain somehow pulls off an upset in Ohio as well as taking Florida and Virginia, we’ll have to wait another agonizing hour or two to see the projected returns based on ballot reporting in Colorado. Yes, kids, Colorado ‘08 could join Florida ‘00 and Ohio ‘04 in the record books, though it’s a pretty long shot.

I know that, if the lot of you are like me, you’ve heard a lot of this stuff already. The big difference is that we’re going to be sitting around drinking and carousing and watching all of this stuff roll in. I, for one, would prefer that my vote be meaningful but not SO powerful, but it could well be so. Keep your fingers crossed and your eyes on Florida, then on Ohio and Virginia (though more Ohio as it’s worth more votes and is more likely to swing blue).

There’s a lot of talk about Georgia being a surprise win for Obama, and that would drastically effect the race. Early voting showed dramatic black turnout (a demographic that traditionally votes Democratic) and early voters tend Democratic as well. Basically, if any state traditionally red changes side (which Georgia is unlikely to do, but North Carolina is slightly more likely to), McCain is fucked.

In any case, 538’s 1.9% chance of winning seems pretty accurate–it would be the biggest upset in American political history if McCain pulled it off. Here’s hoping the first black president is the only historic event of the day.

Posted by: Greg Reilly in Election '08 | Permalink